Once upon a time, in the darkest, most putrid bowels of the White House, the diabolical creators of the worst piece of health legislation in American history connived to completely uproot one-sixth of the economy by convincing the populace this was first, necessary, and second, a boon to the country.
The Obamacare architects knew that there weren’t that many Americans truly locked out of health insurance, and certainly not in the numbers that would justify such a massive overhaul. Yet they, with the help of the lapdog media, touted completely bogus numbers of 45 MILLION!, 47 MILLION!, and 50 MILLION! (depending on the source) to get your attention.
It worked, didn’t it? And we all felt bad to learn this, didn’t we? Half of the country was covered by company plans and we thought it was unconscionable that people hoping to purchase their own health insurance couldn’t afford to.
We were told in 2010, by Jonathan Gruber’s CBO, that the Obamacare insurance exchanges would cover 22 million more Americans by this year (which is, you’ll note, less than half of the purported 50 million uninsured. Some “universal coverage” plan!).
We were also told that insuring these long-suffering individuals would actually save us money!
Eureka, Big Daddy Government will deliver us from ever-increasing health care costs!!! We’re on board!
Now, of course, we realize that the middle-class is taking this law directly on the chin. Workers with health insurance benefits are seeing their out-of-pocket costs skyrocket — while many in the individual market have decided to take their chances as they abandon expensive Obamacare policies with unreachable deductibles.
Meanwhile, as the Congressional Budget Office churns its new Obamacare numbers, we find that the 2009-2010 CBO — Jonathan Gruber’s CBO — was remarkably off-base in its projections. In short, this year’s CBO report shows that the enrollment numbers are roughly half the 21-22 million 2016 exchange customers CBO had consistently forecast in years past, even as recently as March 2015.
Get this: For all the sacrifice
the American people are making,
only 10 million people
are expected to be enrolled
in the exchanges by year’s end.
So what happened?
Well, what happened was that an unexpectedly large number of Americans were folded into Medicaid, the worst coverage in the entire country, instead of signing up for Obamacare plans.
What are the Medicaid/CHIP numbers now?
That’s right. Sixty-eight million American human beings are now on (lousy) Medicaid. Let that sink in.
Even better news for Progressives: CBO also believes that slower wage growth in the future will qualify even more Americans for the welfare programs.
What’s ironic for Obamacare proponents is that increased Medicaid enrollment also poses an existential threat to the exchanges. Take it from CBO itself, which projects that “as more people become eligible for Medicaid coverage, enrollment in coverage through the marketplaces will decline.”
Dentons, a global legal firm, maintains that this is already happening:
“Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP) cover 17 million more people in 2016 than projected, while private insurance through the non-group market, including exchanges … covers 10 million fewer people. Millions of young, healthy people are enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP, rather than in private insurance offered through the exchanges.”
Before a 2012 Supreme Court ruling made Medicaid expansion optional for the states, CBO assumed all Americans with incomes at or below 138 percent of the federal poverty level (FPL) would receive Medicaid. Nineteen states are currently opting not to expand, so a smaller pool of Americans are Medicaid-eligible.
Still, as Dentons notes, “in the past six years Medicaid and CHIP enrollment has nearly doubled from the 2010 baseline.”
We’ve repeatedly been told that state legislatures opting not to expand their Medicaid programs are “greedy, selfish and uncaring.” Yet it is in Medicaid expansion states that Obamacare enrollment and risk pools suffer the most.
In non-expansion states, low-income, young, able-bodied Americans can purchase highly-subsidized exchange policies and help to balance out the costs of older, sicker enrollees. In expansion states, those same young, able-bodied Americans at or below 138 percent FPL are FORCED into Medicaid — as in:
“Sorry, you can’t have a real insurance policy.
You’re too poor.”
In the nation as a whole, insurers need about 40 percent of Obamacare enrollees to be 18- to 34-year-olds. Meanwhile, over at healthcare.gov, only “26 percent of the individuals who selected, or were automatically reenrolled in, a 2016 Marketplace plan are ages 18 to 34.”
Where’d they go?
The Wall Street Journal reports the reason the young and healthy are needed in the exchanges: to “hold down premium rates by balancing out the greater medical spending of older enrollees.” Insurers are already dismayed over the greater-than-expected costs of their current Obamacare populations and are threatening to raise 2017 premiums by double digits. As a result, reports of adverse risk selection and death spirals are proliferating.
It wasn’t enough that Progressives like Harry Reid, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi put the exchanges at risk by insisting on a Cadillac Tax delay — which thus postpones the incentive for employers to dump workers in the Obamacare “exchanges, whether they like it or not.”
Now we see that their failed Medicaid policies have doubled down on the damage.